Recent mainstream steel prices continue to fall, high level of supply pressure in the short term has not been effectively improved.Raw material prices are high, steel profit compression, output is still at a high level, the decline in demand pressure is gradually released.Analysts believe that with the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand, in the demand surface no obvious good situation, rebar price will continue to remain weak in the short term, the downward pressure has increased compared to the early.The turning point of iron ore may have appeared, the best stage of mine price has passed, supply pressure began to increase.
At the weekend, the most pessimistic than billet, a partner said, steel prices can not stop to fall, stop to fall!Who can turn the tide?
Many people are asking, is the steel price to "collapse" the rhythm?
It is said that since 15:00 on June 13, tangshan fengrun district independent steel rolling enterprises suspended production, the district power management office (development and reform bureau) is responsible for the suspension of the enterprise power.
"The billet dropped 50 yuan/ton on Saturday and 30 yuan/ton on Sunday.Since June, the billet has dropped by 140 yuan per ton."Tangshan area of a steel enterprise said.
An industry personage that does not wish to sign tells a reporter, current price drops to accord with historical rule, calendar year this time also is base difference Narrows time point.On the one hand, off-season demand is weak, south rain weather is the main reason;On the other hand, people are not optimistic about the demand of the forward market. From the new macro data, we can see that the macro demand of real estate, fixed asset investment, industrial growth and so on has dropped significantly.
Last week, construction steel prices mainly fell, south China, northwest and northeast thread inventory slightly reduced, the rest of the region spiral inventory are rising trend.Specific, this week by the rise in raw materials, steel profits small compression, but profit is still ok, so this week's output is still increased, but short - term growth is limited.
From the perspective of inventory, steel plant inventory and social inventory increased last week, which indicates that traders are not free to ship goods and are not willing to accept orders.In terms of demand, the terminal demand continues to weaken, and the speculative demand is not good. Although the price is supported by the cost, the bearish sentiment of the market has not changed significantly. The current operation is still dominated by active inventory reduction."Inventory is expected to increase slightly this week, the market price may be a weak oscillation movement."Guotai junan futures black researcher ma liang said.
It is worth noting that into June, steel inventories in the increase.Data shows that steel social inventories of the week of June 3, 309500 tons, 139900 tons of steel inventories, total increase of 449400 tons, increases the library point early than last year, starting in late April inventory down library began to continue to slow speed, on March 29, 2019 steel mills + social low inventory from last year, 3.6692 million tons, and as of June 14, 1.6295 million tons of higher than the same period last year.
Ma Liang inventory slow down most of continued to slow, and this week tired library main reason has two aspects: one is the demand of declining, according to Mysteel, according to clinch a deal the data may clinch a deal the terminal shows a tendency of decline gradually, and the latest real estate data may have appeared in the overall decline in growth, after entering June building materials will be faced with demand off-season, and real estate, also fell in May, the late demand is not optimistic.Second, the automobile, is the continuation of the previous decline, production and sales growth is still in decline.In the demand decline at the same time, steel output is still at a high level, january-may China crude steel output growth rate as high as 10.20%, the latest micro data also shows that although the recent profits of steel mills have declined, but the output is still hovering at a high level.
It is reported that the recent iron ore prices rose sharply, while steel prices continue to weak, steel mills profit appeared a rapid contraction, part of the higher cost of hot roll factory has losses (costs) completely, but, according to research at present the factory temporarily no production will, said only touched the cash cost may consider production, the current hot rolled the cash cost of spot prices from the factory about the space of 100-150 yuan/ton.
Tian feng futures research director zhou yaochen told reporters that this year's iron ore price rise also significantly compressed corporate profits, steel profits from 800 yuan/ton, fell to 200-300 yuan/ton low, the current situation of steel profits is not very optimistic.
The industry pointed out that the recent steel supply and demand contradiction in the rapid accumulation of steel factory building, library of club last week inventory inflection point looms, screw volume spot prices continue to weak, the current steel high yield decline in demand, contradictions begin to gradually appear, if steel prices continue to weaken, further hit a part of the cash cost of steel mill, could trigger for the maintenance of steel production, which hit demand for iron ore, alleviate iron ore by means of falling demand in the sharp contradiction between supply and demand.
It is worth noting that in order to further curb potential excessive speculation, effectively prevent risks and ensure the safe and stable operation of the market, daishang announced on the evening of June 14 that it will adjust the daily limit and minimum margin of the 1909 contract of iron ore futures to 8% and 10% respectively from June 18, 2019.
Some people in the industry believe that the margin raised by the exchange, to some extent, is a manifestation of potential market risks under the background of the marketization of the international variety system.
Dong kaiyan believes that the domestic steel market prices last week to become weaker operation.From the current market situation, the short-term spot operation is still dominated by shipment and inventory reduction, while the inventory of the mainstream varieties in the early stage continues to decline, which gives the market a positive boost, but this week's inventory increase makes the market more bearish sentiment.Secondly, although the production enterprises are supported by the cost due to the strong performance of blank price, the profit of spot resources is continuously compressed, and a small number of varieties even remain in the inverted state. In the short term, the price will continue to be weak in the absence of obvious improvement in the demand surface, but the decline is limited.It is expected that the domestic steel market price this week or to maintain a weak oscillation operation.
Macroeconomic data released this month on real estate, land purchases, infrastructure and manufacturing show seasonally weaker demand and a weakening trend in some key sectors, according to galaxy futures research.Under the premise that the supply side is restricted by administrative production and not upgraded, the path for the marketization to force steel mills to lose money and reduce production will be more clear.
According to Mysteel's investigation this week, the mainstream billet includes tax cost of 3194 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan/ton compared with last week, corresponding to the cash cost of long process thread of about 3600 yuan.At present thread, hot coil spot in 3800 or so, billet factory price 3470 yuan/ton (accumulated drop 70 yuan/ton this weekend), the mainstream resources have not reached the cash cost production line, cold rolling, pickling and other resources have fallen to a loss, later from the base material to general coil and thread pressure is greater.
Galaxy futures believe that the best fundamentals of iron ore may be over.Since may, the total weekly shipment volume of Australia and Brazil has increased by 3.5-4 million tons compared with march to April. As the shipment resources continue to arrive at the port, it is expected that the fastest decline in port inventory has passed.At present, the pressure on the demand side has just started. Since the steel mill has not reached the line of loss and production reduction, the conduction on the iron ore raw material end has not been intensively reflected, but the pressure on the steel mill to receive bad orders will definitely be transmitted to the upstream raw material purchasing end. Judging from the current profit space and conduction process, the spot sales pressure will start to appear around the end of this month.
From my steel web